[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 171/125

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   1122 0011
      Darwin                2   1121 0012
      Townsville            -   ---- ---- 
      Learmonth             3   2221 0011
      Canberra              3   1122 0010
      Hobart                3   1122 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1001 1010     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     7    Quiet 
03 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jan    17    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests the possibility of another mild 
increase in geomagnetic activity 3-4 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions, local night hours 
at high latitudes 3-4 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Jan   181

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected local 
night hours over next few days, southern region AUs/NZ only. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060