[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 170/124

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Flare potential appears to be reducing, chance of isolated 
M class flare activity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2121 1001
      Darwin                2   1111 1012
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             4   3011 01-1
      Canberra              2   1021 1001
      Hobart                2   1121 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     4    Quiet 
02 Jan     7    Quiet 
03 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests the possibility of another mild 
increase in geomagnetic activity 3-4 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions, local night hours 
at high latitudes 3-4 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
31 Dec   173

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 


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