[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 130/84

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   1112 1112
      Darwin                -   ---- ----
      Townsville            3   1112 1112
      Learmonth             6   2212 2223
      Canberra              2   -111 0112
      Hobart                2   1121 0101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 FEB : 
      Darwin               NA
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1123 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    12    Unsettled 
18 Feb    30    Active to Minor storm 
19 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 17-19 February. Active to minor storm 
levels of geomagnetic activity are expected late on 17 feb or 
early on 18 feb following the anticipated arrival of a shock 
associated with a full halo CME and long duration B8.8 flare 
observed on 15 feb after 1308 UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected on 18 feb following the 
anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a full halo CME 
and long duration B8.8 flare observed after 1308UT on 15 feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Feb   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb   125    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    90    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
19 Feb   110    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 18-19 February. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions are expected on 18 feb following the anticipated arrival 
of a shock associated with a full halo CME and long duration 
B8.8 flare activity observed after 1308 UT on the 15 feb. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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