[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 135/89

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2123 2112
      Darwin                -   ---- ----
      Townsville            4   1122 1112
      Learmonth             7   3122 2-22
      Canberra              5   1123 1111
      Hobart                6   2123 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 FEB : 
      Darwin               NA
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   4434 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Feb     7    Quiet 
18 Feb     6    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Feb   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   120    near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb   120    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Equatorial and high-latitude Australian MUFs were 10 
to 50% above predicted monthly values overnight and drove the 
Australian T index value 10% above predicted monthly values. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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