[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1111 0012
      Darwin                1   1011 0012
      Townsville            2   1111 0013
      Learmonth             5   2212 1123
      Canberra              1   2011 0002
      Hobart                2   1111 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1000 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     6    Quiet 
06 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
07 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: There is the small chance of an increase in geomagnetic 
activity for 5-6 Feb from recent CME events and a small coronal 
hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
degraded for 5-6 Feb in association with a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Feb   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 25-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
degraded for 5-6 Feb in association with a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 

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