[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0007UT  confirmed  0000UT 0025UT  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 164/118

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1011 0102
      Darwin                1   2011 0002
      Townsville            1   2011 0002
      Learmonth             6   2111 23-2
      Canberra              1   1110 0002
      Hobart                0   0010 0003
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   3202 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb     5    Quiet 
05 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: There is the small chance of an increase in geomagnetic 
activity for 5-6 Feb from recent CME events, although the material 
from these CMEs does not appear to be directed towards the Earth. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
degraded for 5-6 Feb in association with a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Feb   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
degraded for 5-6 Feb in association with a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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