[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2N    0124UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/1F    0328UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 209/160

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
16/1325UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 16 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4453 3222
      Darwin              16   3352 223-
      Learmonth           25   535- 2-22
      Canberra            19   3453 223-
      Hobart              19   3453 223-
      Casey(Ant)          27   --64 322-
      Davis(Ant)          32   4564 431-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 DEC : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3333 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Dec   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec   160    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec   150    near predicted monthly values 
19 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 15-17 December (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:   21.8 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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