[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 218/168

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/0715UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9714 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 16 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3332 4224
      Darwin               7   2221 3225
      Learmonth           19   3--2 52-4
      Canberra             8   2222 3224
      Hobart               7   2222 3123
      Casey(Ant)          18   4-4- 3234
      Davis(Ant)          20   344- 42--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec    25    active 
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 15-16 December. Due to effects of 
CME associated with X6 of 13 Dec. geomagnetic fields are expected 
to be affected from late 15 to 16 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be affected on 16 Dec.. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Dec   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec   120    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
17 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec   185    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 15-17 December (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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