[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.2    1911UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.0    2201UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 237/187

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            210/161

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
12/2115UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3233 3233
      Darwin               8   2222 3133
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             9   2233 3122
      Hobart              11   2333 3123
      Casey(Ant)          18   --43 33--
      Davis(Ant)          21   4-44 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec    12    Unsettled 
14 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 13-15 December. Magnetic field may 
be affected on 14 and 15 Nov due to coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Dec   158

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
14 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 12-14 December (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    43300 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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