[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X2/SF    0808UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
 M1/2N    1451UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 221/171

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            210/161
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2232 1122
      Darwin               7   1142 1112
      Learmonth            5   -131 1022
      Canberra             5   1131 1122
      Hobart               4   1121 1122
      Casey(Ant)          12   3343 2122
      Davis(Ant)           9   2333 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec     6    Quiet 
13 Dec     6    Quiet 
14 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 13-15 December. A partial halo CME 
observed in association with an X2 flare Dec 11/0808UT, may impact 
the earth late on 13 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed in association with an X2 
flare Dec 11/0808UT, may impact the earth late on 13 December. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Dec   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    32900 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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