[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained northward for much of the UT day. Solar wind conditions 
now nominal. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
19/1815UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1312 1112
      Darwin               7   13-- 2223
      Townsville           1   0110 0011
      Learmonth            9   13-3 2222
      Canberra             6   03-3 1112
      Hobart               7   13-3 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 AUG : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   3332 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    12    Unsettled 
21 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
22 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 18 August and 
is current for interval 20-21 August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0140UT 16/08, Ended at 1535UT 18/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
20-21 Aug due to anticiapted coronal hole induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Aug   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    90    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
22 Aug   112    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradarion for southern region Aus/NZ expected 
local night hours 20-21 Aug. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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