[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 156/110

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained northward for much of the UT day. Solar wind conditions 
now nominal. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2310 2223
      Darwin              13   33-1 3334
      Townsville           3   1110 1123
      Learmonth           10   23-1 3323
      Canberra             8   23-0 3223
      Hobart               7   23-0 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 AUG : 
      Darwin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Hobart             122   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             29   1124 5565     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
20 Aug    20    active chance of minor storm period
21 Aug    16    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ended sooner than expected due 
to northward IMF. Recurrence suggests that active conditions 
can be expected 20-21 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0140UT 16/08, Ended at 1535UT 18/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
20-21 Aug due to anticiapted coronal hole induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Aug   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    90    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: Mild degradarion for southern region Aus/NZ expected 
local night hours 20-21 Aug. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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