[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 191/143

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            210/161            220/170


A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1506UT on 21 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1101 2323
      Darwin                5   2101 1323
      Townsville            4   1101 1323
      Learmonth             8   2112 2333
      Canberra              5   0101 2323
      Hobart                4   1101 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 APR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3312 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Apr    18    Active 
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for interval 23-25 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 0330UT 18/04, Ended at 1005UT 20/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Apr   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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