[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 22 09:23:59 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 191/143
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 210/161 220/170
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1506UT on 21 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 1101 2323
Darwin 5 2101 1323
Townsville 4 1101 1323
Learmonth 8 2112 2333
Canberra 5 0101 2323
Hobart 4 1101 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 APR :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3312 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
23 Apr 18 Active
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and
is current for interval 23-25 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : Began at 0330UT 18/04, Ended at 1005UT 20/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 130 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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