[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/1F    2004UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/1F    0523UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 180/133

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            185/138            195/147

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 2101
      Darwin                5   3211 2102
      Townsville            4   2211 2101
      Learmonth             6   3221 2112
      Canberra              3   2211 2001
      Hobart                3   2211 2001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 APR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             16   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3231 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Apr    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for interval 23-25 April. Coronal hole induced activity 
is expected 23-25 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : Began at 0330UT 18/04, Ended at 1005UT 20/04

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Apr   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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