[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 196/148

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            180/133


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       34   2546 5334
      Darwin               26   2445 5334
      Townsville           22   343- 5333
      Learmonth            29   2535 5433
      Canberra             37   2556 5334
      Hobart               43   2556 634-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 NOV : 
      Darwin               27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra             46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             38   6564 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov    30    Active to Minor storm 
30 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
01 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Quiet to major storm 
conditions were observed on the 28 Nov after a shock was observed 
at around 0430UT. The arrival of an other shock associated with 
a CME observed following the X4 flare on the 26 Nov at 1648UT 
is likely to produce active to minor storm conditions on 29 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 11 2000 1605UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor          
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for the 29 Nov after the 
major storm geomagnetic conditions observed overnight on the 
28 Nov. Further depressions are expected following the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed following a 
X4 flare on 26 Nov at 1648UT. SWFs are possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Nov   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA in progress.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   100    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   120    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions occured late in the UT day on 28 Nov as the anticipated 
shock hit late in the afternoon on the 28 Nov. Depressed conditions 
are expected early in the UT day on 29 Nov following the enhanced 
geomagnetic conditions observed overnight on 28 Nov and the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a X4 flare observed on the 
26 Nov at 1648UT. 


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