[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 192/144

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Storm levels 

Estimated Indices 27 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       40   5555 5344
      Darwin               40   5555 5344
      Townsville           44   5556 5343
      Learmonth            43   5555 5354
      Canberra             40   5555 5344
      Hobart               44   6555 5343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV : 
      Darwin               96   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           47   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            83   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            199   (Severe storm)
      Hobart               NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        40
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             22   1132 4455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    40    Minor storm 
29 Nov    30    Minor storm 
30 Nov    14    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Storm to minor storm 
conditions were observed on the 27 Nov. The anticipated arrival 
of several shocks associated with CMEs observed following further 
flares on the 26 Nov is likely to produce further active to minor 
storm conditions on the 28 and 29 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 11 2000 1605UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor          
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor          
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs by 20 to 30% were observed on the 27 
Nov. Further depression are expected for the 28 and 29 Nov after 
the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated with CMEs 
observed following further flares on 26 Nov. SWFs are possible. 
PCA still in progress. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Nov    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    90    about 30% below predicted monthly values 
29 Nov   100    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   120    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Ionospheric depressions 
were observed on the 27 Nov as IMF Bz turned southwards after 
the shock arrivals of the 26 Nov. Depressed ionospheric conditions 
by 20% to 30% are anticipated for the 28 and 29 Nov after the 
expected arrival of several shocks associated with CMEs observed 
following further flares on the 26 Nov. 


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