[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 191/143

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            195/147


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1221 2122
      Darwin                5   1121 2222
      Townsville            5   -121 2122
      Learmonth             6   2221 2222
      Canberra              4   1221 2113
      Hobart                4   1221 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec     7    Quiet 
18 Dec     7    Quiet 
19 Dec     7    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Dec   160

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
19 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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