[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 00
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 1 10:17:03 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0925UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1/-- 2038UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 192/144
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: A solar region (SEC 9246) is showing growth and futher
M class flares appear likely.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 1123
Darwin 5 2222 1123
Townsville 6 2222 122-
Learmonth 8 3322 1123
Canberra 8 3322 1124
Hobart 5 2222 1113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 52 5765 6423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 12 Unsettled
02 Dec 15 Unsettled, chance of active conditions.
03 Dec 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: There is an outside chance of an impulse during the
first half of the uT day on 02 Dec, from a recent Type II.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. High latitudes
may be initially degraded today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region and Northern Region:
Near predicted monthly values, to 15% depressed,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Spread F local night hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed. Absorption observed early in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 140 near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 140 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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