[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 21 January 26 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Jan    81    Poor-fair      

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0135UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.4    0712UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2240UT 18/01, Ended at 1640UT 21/01

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      110
Jan      89
Feb      88


2. FORECAST (22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Jan    50    Fair-normal      10 to 15% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
23 Jan    70    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
24 Jan    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Ionospheric conditions 
in the Australian region recovered over UT day 21-Jan, as geomagnetic 
conditions eased. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were depressed 
by 20-25% in the Australian region during this time, with depressions 
of up to 40% seen in the Cocos Islands. Strong spread F was observed 
in Hobart and Perth, and strong sporadic E was observed in Norfolk 
Island. Further ionospheric recoveries are expected over 22-24 
Jan, with MUFs likely to trend toward predicted monthly values 
over this period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible, and sporadic 
E may be observed during local night hours.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au