[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Feb   128    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0 03/2250UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.4 03/2309UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0110UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.1    0230UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.9    0239UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.1    0355UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.8    0920UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.1    1012UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1046UT  possible   lower  European
  X4.2    1213UT  probable   all    European
  M1.8    1534UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87


2. FORECAST (05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Feb   115    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
06 Feb   110    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
07 Feb   115    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 
2 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly enhanced by 15-30% 
above predicted monthly values. The strongest enhancements were 
observed during local night hours and in the northern Australian 
region. Sporadic E was observed across the Australian region 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced by 15% over 05-07 Feb. Anticipated 
geomagnetic activity on 05-Feb may mildly depress MUFs in the 
southern Australian region on 05-06 Feb. Sporadic E is expected 
in the Australian region during local night hours. Shortwave 
fadeouts are expected.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au