[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 14 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 May    89    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.3    0325UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0745UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X2.7    0825UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M7.7    1119UT  probable   lower  European
  M4.7    1811UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      123
May      113
Jun      111


2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 17 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 May    80    Normal           15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
16 May   100    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
17 May   100    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 
14 May and is current for 14-16 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-May were depressed 
by 15-45% during local night and were near predicted monthly 
values during local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during 
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 
15-May, improving to near predicted monthly values over 16-17 
May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au