[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 21 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Jan   144    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    1037UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15-20% early in the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      132
Jan      119
Feb      116


2. FORECAST (22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Jan   125    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan   125    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
24 Jan   125    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 
21 January and is current for 21-23 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jan varied from 
15-20% depressed in the southern Australian region during the 
local day to 20-40% enhanced in the northern Australian region. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values for 22-24 
Jan as the recent mild increase in geomagnetic activity from 
a coronal hole wind stream has now declined. Depressed MUFs may 
be experienced on 25-Jan due to a possible glancing blow CME 
arrival late in the UT day on 24-Jan. Isolated minor fadeouts 
possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au