[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 30 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (30 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
30 Oct   130    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.2    2053UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced at Darwin.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
      at Casey and Davis of approximately 1dB as event declines.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2024 1850UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
31 Oct   100    Normal           Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced    
02 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on 
28 October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were generally near predicted values in the Australian 
region on UT day 30-Oct, with 15% depressions in the southern 
Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed during local night 
hours at several sites. Ionospheric absorption in the Antarctic 
region has reduced as the solar proton flux declines. A fadeout 
was observed at Niue 30/2035-2125UT only impacting lower HF frequencies 
in association with the M7 flare. For 31-Oct MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced for the northern 
Australian region. Southern Australian region MUFs have been 
15% depressed after local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for 01-02 
Nov.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au