[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 05 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (05 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
05 May   106    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.2 04/2237UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.6 04/2342UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  M9.1 04/2348UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  X1.3    0601UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    0816UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.3    0938UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M7.4    1000UT  probable   lower  European
  X1.2    1154UT  probable   all    European
  M1.3    1447UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.2    1539UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    1840UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    1952UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (06 MAY - 08 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
06 May   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed
07 May    95    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed    
08 May   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 
3 May and is current for 4-6 May. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 47 was issued on 5 May and is current for 5-7 May. Maximum 
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-May were generally near 
predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and 
Perth during local night hours and sporadic-E was observed in 
Canberra during local night hours, along with generally degraded 
conditions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 
20% depressed over 06-08 May, as there is possible geomagnetic 
activity in the forecast for the coming days. Shortwave fadeout 
are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au