[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 May    87    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2 03/2243UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.4 03/2330UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.6    0036UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M9.1    0619UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    0707UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    1820UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.2    2237UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (05 MAY - 07 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 May   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed
06 May   100    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 30% depressed    
07 May    95    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 30% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 
3 May and is current for 4-6 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 04-May were near predicted values to 30% depressed. 
Degraded conditions were observed in Brisbane, and spread-F was 
observed in Brisbane, Hobart, Niue and Perth during local night 
hours. Equatorial scintillation was observed at Niue between 
04/0933-0950 UT. Depressions may ease during local daylight hours 
on 05-May, but depressions are generally expected to persist 
over 05-07 May due to expected geomagnetic activity. Equatorial 
scintillation after local midnight hours is possible. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au