[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 29 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 Jul   138    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.5    0237UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0520UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    1222UT  possible   lower  European
  M8.7    1255UT  probable   lower  European
  M4.2    1446UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M6.4    1957UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      120
Jul      118
Aug      117


2. FORECAST (30 JULY - 01 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 Jul   100    Fair             Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
31 Jul    90    Fair             Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
01 Aug    90    Fair             Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 80 was issued 
on 28 July and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 82 was issued on 29 July and is current for 30-31 Jul. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Jul were near 
predicted values in the Australian region. Sporadic E was observed 
at Cocos Islands during local night and dawn hours. MUFs are 
expected to be degraded over 30-Jul to 01-Aug due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from numerous CME arrivals. There is a chance 
for polar cap absorption (PCA) to affect high latitudes. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au