[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 23 July 24 issued 2334 UT on 23 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (23 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
23 Jul   146    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    1428UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 23 07 2024 0250UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0200UT 23/07, Ended at 1300UT 23/07

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      120
Jul      118
Aug      117


2. FORECAST (24 JULY - 26 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
24 Jul   125    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced
25 Jul   125    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced    
26 Jul   125    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 77 was issued 
on 22 July and is current for 24-25 Jul. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 78 was issued on 22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Jul were near 
predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region. Strong 
spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric 
scintillation was observed at Niue 23/0710-0937UT. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 24-26 Jul. Degraded 
HF conditions for local night on 24-Jul and brief depressions 
for southern Australian region early on 25-Jul are now not expected 
due to much weaker/earlier than expected geomagnetic activity 
from a recent CME. Isolated minor HF fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au