[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Jul   140    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.0 13/2301UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.7    0116UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X1.2    0234UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.0    0413UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    1020UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    2057UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      120
Jul      118
Aug      117


2. FORECAST (15 JULY - 17 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Jul   115    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul   115    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
17 Jul   115    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 
13 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Jul were near predicted values in the Australian 
region during the local day, with enhancements of 15-40% observed 
during local night hours. Weak ionospheric scintillation was 
occasionally observed at Darwin during the interval 14/1210-1340UT. 
A fadeout was observed in the eastern Australian region associated 
with the X1.2 flare at 14/0234UT impacting lower HF frequencies. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 15-17 Jul, 
Further shortwave fadeouts are probable.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au