[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 29 December 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 Dec   157    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2 28/2214UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    0235UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.0    0430UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.1    0526UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.1    0718UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    1224UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1429UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M7.1    1509UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.3    1708UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    2039UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.5    2153UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      127
Dec      117
Jan      114


2. FORECAST (30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 Dec   160    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
31 Dec   150    Normal-fair      Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
01 Jan   130    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 149 was issued on 
27 December and is current for 28-30 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-Dec were near predicted 
values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was common at most sites during 
local night hours, however appears to be decreasing in intensity 
and duration. Lower frequencies on daylight HF circuits may have 
been degraded due to high background X-ray flux levels. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted values to 25% enhanced over 
30-31 Dec, before becoming depressed by 20% on 01-Dec due to 
anticipated geomagnetic activity.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au