[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Aug   154    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2 08/2251UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    1117UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    1206UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1243UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    2037UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M4.5    2123UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      131
Aug      119
Sep      119


2. FORECAST (10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Aug   140    Fair             Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
11 Aug   100    Fair             10 to 15% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
12 Aug   110    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 87 was issued 
on 7 August and is current for 10-11 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 88 was issued on 9 August and is current for 9-11 Aug. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on 
UT day 09-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. 
Strong enhancements were observed in the southern Australian 
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15-20% enhanced on 10-Aug. Degraded conditions are expected 
for local night hours on 10-Aug due to an anticipated increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Southern Australian region MUFs may 
become 15% depressed on 11-Aug if geomagnetic activity eventuates. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 12-Aug. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au