[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 August 24 issued 2343 UT on 04 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Aug   162    Normal-poor    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0159UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    1001UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.4    1008UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.2    1515UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    2211UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      131
Aug      119
Sep      119


2. FORECAST (05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Aug    90    Poor-normal      Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
06 Aug   130    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.    
07 Aug   130    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 
3 August and is current for 3-5 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Aug were near predicted values to 25% enhanced 
in the Australian region for most of the UT day. Southern Australian 
region MUFs became depressed by 15-20% after local dawn following 
overnight geomagnetic activity. Spread F was observed at Hobart 
during local night hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue 
and Weipa 04/0825-1210UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the northern Australian region and 15% depressed 
for the southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au