[ips-dhfpr-euro] ASWFC Daily European HF Report 10 05 24 issued 0650 UT on 11 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY EUROPEAN HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/0630Z MAY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
EUROPEAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
MUF SUMMARY/FORECAST INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS AUTOMATICALLY
GENERATED FROM REGIONAL IONOSPHERIC DATA

1. SUMMARY FOR 10 05 24
Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.7 09/2241UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.6 09/2351UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.4    0329UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0624UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X3.9    0654UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M5.9    1411UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.2    1741UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1832UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.8    1850UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.8    2108UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1637UT on 10 May.
A moderate (51nT) impulse was observed in the SWS magnetometer data
at 1706UT on 10 May.
PCA Event : 10MeV (S1) Proton/PCA Event Began 11 05 2024 0210UT and
is in progress

Observed T index:   102

Observed European Region MUFS:
Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20%
during local night.

2. FORECAST FOR 11 05 2024

Forecast T index:  -15
Forecast European Region MUFS:
Initially today: Depressed by 55%.
Rest of day: Depressed 30-40%
COMMENT:Strongly degraded HF conditions expected due to geomagnetic
activity. The geomagnetic field was disturbed during the first 6
hours of the forecast day.

3. 7 DAY AVERAGE T INDEX AND FORECAST MONTHLY T INDEX

Average European T index over last 7 days:   101
ASWFC monthly forcast T index for MAY 2024: 114



Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au