[Ips-aurora-alert] Aurora Watch [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc at ips.gov.au]

SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0022 UT ON 10 Oct 2021 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE


AR2882 produced M1.6 flare at 09/0638 UT, which triggered a full-halo
CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 09/0712 UTC.
The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at
around 1700 UT +/- 6 hours. As a result, the geomagnetic conditions
are expected to reach minor storm level with a chance of major
storms. The global Kp index is expected to reach 6 (G2 storms),
with a chance of 7 (G3 storms). On the local night of 11 October
(and maybe 12 October), aurora may be visible from Tasmania,
the coastline of Victoria and the southwest coast of Western
Australia. Aurora alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic
activity actually occurs.


Australian Space Forecast Centre
Space Weather Services
Bureau of Meteorology

P: +61 2 9213 8010
E: asfc at bom.gov.au