[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 November 23) issued 0038 UT on 17 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (10 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    144   142   137   134   124   119   118
AFr       7     4    10    15     5    11  (  8)
Aaus      6     1     9    10     7     9  (  6)
T       128   131   132   115   125   108   109

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 1730UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 12 Nov, a weak (22nT) impulse 
was observed at 0612UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

13 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 2305UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Nov 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 2305UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Nov 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (17 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
R0. No significant solar region is currently on the 
visible solar disk. A new solar region at S13 will rotate onto
the solar disk today, but at this stage it does not seem to be 
large.

Geomagnetic:  
G1 periods possible at times during 19-20 Nov due to CME 
activity on 16-Nov. G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
Australian regional MUFs depressed 15% on 20 Nov after 
local dawn for the southern Australian region. MUFs near 
predicted monthly values on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au