[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (12 May 23) issued 0044 UT on 12 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 12 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (05 MAY - 11 MAY)
Date     05    06    07    08    09    10    11
10cm    162   152   157   172   180   170   163
AFr       4    21     8    13    11    19  ( 14)
Aaus      2    13     9     9     6    20  (  5)
T        97   111   108   111   114   119   109

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

05 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 0802UT, and an M1.2 at 
              1531UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 06 May, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 0130UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 2234UT, and an M2.3 at 
              2025UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
In the BOM magnetometer data for 08 May, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 1358UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event with increased absorption observed.

09 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M6.5 at 0354UT, an M1.2 at 0613UT, 
              an M1.3 at 1020UT, an M4.2 at 1858UT, and an M5.0 
              at 2052UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 09 May, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 2248UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.2 at 1421UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 10 May, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 0713UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event with increased absorption observed.

11 May 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.2 at 0901UT, and an M1.8 at 
              1829UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (12 MAY - 18 MAY)
Solar: R1, chance of R2

Geomagnetic:  G2, chance of G3 on 12-May due to 
the anticipated arrival of a CME, with G1 conditions
possible on 13-May. G0 on other days.

Frequencies: Degraded HF conditions expected local night
hours tonight due to expected arrival of a CME. Depressed
and degraded HF conditions likely after local dawn on 13-May 
for southern Australian region. Northern Australian region MUFS 
expected to be mostly near predicted values with the chance 
for mild depressions after local dawn. MUFs near predicted 
monthly values on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au