[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 February 23) issued 0056 UT on 24 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (17 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    343   167   169   160   161   152   148
AFr       4     5     4     6    15     4  ( 16)
Aaus      3     3     6     7    12     5  ( 14)
T       111   112   132   117   134   111   118

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Feb 
Solar:        R3, with an X2.3 at 2017UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-85%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.4 at 1458UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 20 Feb, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 1036UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

21 Feb 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.6 at 1111UT, an M4.8 at 1123UT, 
              and an M5.1 at 2017UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35% over the UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-40% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0506UT, and an M2.7 at 
              1350UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0614UT, an M1.0 at 
              0848UT and an M1.3 at 0900UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (24 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH)
Solar: 
R1-R2 conditions are expected over 24-28 Feb with 
R0-R1 conditions expected over 1-2 Mar.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over the week 
of 24-Feb to 2-Mar, with a chance of G1 conditions 
over 24-28 Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind 
stream effects.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced 
throughout the week, with the chance of mild depressions
over 26-Feb to 1-Mar due to possible geomagnetic 
disturbed conditions.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au