[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 February 23) issued 0155 UT on 17 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 17 12:55:37 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 17 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
1. SUMMARY (10 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10cm 208 210 200 189 180 174 163
AFr 12 10 5 3 6 23 ( 22)
Aaus 9 6 5 4 5 21 ( 20)
T 100 121 126 121 145 152 80
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies: Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
10 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M3.7 at 0303UT, an M1.4 at 0805UT,
an M1.2 at 1455UT, an M1.7 at 1601UT, and an M1.3
at 2241UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
11 Feb
Solar: R3, with an M1.3 at 2241UT, an M2.3 at 0808UT,
an M1.1 at 1058UT, an M1.5 at 1134UT, an M1.5 at
1210UT, an M1.1 at 1223UT, an M1.5 at 1240UT, an
X1.2 at 1549UT, and an M1.4 at 1723UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
12 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M3.2 at 0848UT, an M1.5 at 0927UT,
an M1.2 at 1334UT, and an M1.1 at 1538UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-55%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
13 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M1.1 at 0519UT, and an M1.4 at
1556UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
14 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M1.8 at 0203UT, and an M2.7 at
1212UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
15 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M1.1 at 0447UT, an M2.0 at 0523UT,
an M1.4 at 0705UT, and an M1.1 at 2114UT
Geomagnetic: G1
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-55% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45-50% during local night and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-70% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
16 Feb
Solar: R1, with an M1.1 at 0032UT
Geomagnetic: G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 16 Feb, a weak (8nT) impulse
was observed at 0912UT.
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (17 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY)
Solar:
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels this week.
Geomagnetic:
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-Feb, with a chance of
G1. G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a slight chance of G2 are
expected on 18-Feb due to an anticipated CME impact from a CME
first observed on 15-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 19-Feb. G0 conditions are expected for the remainder of the week.
Frequencies:
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
week. Mild depressions of 15% are possible on 18-Feb due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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