[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 October 22) issued 0112 UT on 07 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 07 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (30 SEPTEMBER - 06 OCTOBER)
Date     30    01    02    03    04    05    06
10cm    137   148   154   155   152   161   156
AFr      12     2     9    16    13    11  ( 13)
Aaus     11     3     7    13     9     7  ( ??)
T        97    89    93    94    92   105   106

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

30 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0402UT, an M3.0 at 1622UT, 
              and an M1.4 at 1734UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 30 Sep, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 0517UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Oct 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.9 at 2010UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Oct 
Solar:        R3, with an M8.8 at 0221UT, an M1.3 at 1405UT, 
              an M1.1 at 1545UT, and an X1.1 at 2025UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.6 at 0233UT, an M4.2 at 1011UT, 
              an M1.1 at 1053UT, an M1.5 at 1111UT, an M1.7 at 
              1530UT, an M1.3 at 2029UT, an M1.8 at 2122UT, and 
              an M1.3 at 2202UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 1315UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

05 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

06 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (07 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 solar activity generally expected during the week.

Geomagnetic:  
G1 geomagnetic conditions are possible on 07 and 09-Oct due
to possible CME impacts.

G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on other days.

Frequencies:  
Degraded HF conditions are possible due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity on 07 and 09-Oct. 

MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced on other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au