[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 October 22) issued 0043 UT on 14 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 14 11:43:29 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (07 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Date     07    08    09    10    11    12    13
10cm    160   157   161   163   150   141   130
AFr      12    10    18     8     7     4  (  5)
Aaus     10     9    14     6     3     4  (  3)
T        90   108   101    88   104   112   113

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

07 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 1445UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

09 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0047UT, and an M2.4 at 
              1628UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.0 at 0842UT, and an M1.5 at 
              1052UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

12 Oct 
Solar:        R1
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-65%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

13 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0020UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% to 35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% to 50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% to 25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (14 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R0 with chance of isolated low-level R1 flares on 14-15 Oct.

Geomagnetic:  
Mostly G0 conditions expected with a chance of G1 on 15-Oct and 
17-Oct due to the possible arrivals of two minor CME's first 
observed on 11 and 13-Oct, respectively.

Frequencies:  
MUFs may be enhanced by 15-30% declining to near predicted 
monthly values toward end of week. Slight chance of mildly 
degraded HF conditions during local night hours in mid-high 
latitudes on 15-Oct and 17-Oct. 


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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