[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 October 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 OCTOBER 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm     78    80    79    78    78    78    77
AFr       1     2     5     7     5     3   ( 5)
Aaus      3     3     6    12     5     7   ( 2)
T        22    29    30    22    10    17     4

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

17 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
slightly below predicted monthly values

18 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

19 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

20 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (21 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER)
Solar: Conditions are expected to be Very Low. As there
are no active regions currently on disc, nor any returning
regions expected, no increase in solar activity is
forecast for this period.

Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected,
with possible Active periods from 22Oct to 24Oct due to
coronal hole effects.

Frequencies: MUFs depressions ranging from 10% to 20% are
expected during local day and night, for the first half
of this forecast period. Otherwise mostly normal with near
predicted monthly values.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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