[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 October 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 OCTOBER 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (07 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Date     07    08    09    10    11    12    13
10cm     79    78    79    79    78    77    78
AFr      11    16     7     7     5     1 (  3)
Aaus      8    17     8     8     4     2 (  5)
T        24    20    17    26    22    20    20

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

07 Oct 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

08 Oct 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Variable depressions up to 30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

09 Oct 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  Slightly above predicted monthly values.

10 Oct 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active 
Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values.

11 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values.

12 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Vanimo 19-21 UT. Spread F observed at Port Moresby
      12-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E
      observed at Darwin 13-18 UT and spread F from 13-17 UT
      Sporadic E observed at Niue 16-17 and 20 UT. Sporadic
      E observed at Brisbane 13-14 UT and spread F 17-19 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Canberra 04-07 UT, Mundaring 02-03 UT and Hobart 03-05 UT.
      Spread F observed at Canberra 16-18 UT and Hobart
      14-18 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

13 Oct 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      08-11 UT and 14-17 UT at Vanimo and 07-09 UT and 15 UT
      at Port Moresby.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      03-06 UT. Spread F observed at Niue 10-11 UT and
      Brisbane 12-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Sydney and Canberra 03-05 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      Macquarie Island 09-18 UT and sporadic E observed at
      Mawson 18-20 UT.

 
2. FORECAST (14 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic: Quiet to unsettled with active periods on 15 Oct.

Frequencies: Near predicted monthly values. On the 15 Oct,
frequencies may be depressed to 40% at times at the higher
latitudes. Lower latitudes on the 15 Oct are likely to be
unaffected by the geomagnetic activity.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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