[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 July 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 JULY 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (08 JULY - 14 JULY)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    110   107   102    93    96    92    90
AFr       5    13    28    14    17    20 ( 10)
Aaus      3    15    28    16    18    16 (  5)
T        51    55    56    38    35    30    24

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

10 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of significant degradations. 

11 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed at some Antarctic 
      sites, second half of UT day.

13 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
slightly above predicted monthly values

14 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an   M1.0 at 0323UT , an   M1.1 at 0652UT , an   M9.1
at 0725UT , an   X1.3 at 1055UT , an   M1.3 at 1725UT , and an   M1.1 at 2258UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

 
2. FORECAST (15 JULY - 21 JULY)
Solar: 
Moderate activity early in week.

Geomagnetic:  
Quiet to unsettled conditions. Possibility of active 
periods 15/16th due to train of CMEs associated with 
recent solar flares from AR786.

Frequencies:  
briefly depressed after local dawn 15 to 21 Jul
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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