[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 November 04)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 5 12:16:35 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 05 NOVEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (29 OCTOBER - 04 NOVEMBER)
Date 29 30 31 01 02 03 04
10cm 129 136 139 136 133 136 136
AFr 6 10 7 4 2 7 ( 8)
Aaus 7 13 10 6 5 8 ( 6)
T 90 76 63 90 97 81 75
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
29 Oct
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
30 Oct
Solar: high, with an M3/SF at 0333UT, an M4/SF at 0618UT, an M3/1N at
0928UT, an X1.2/SF at 1146UT, and an M5.9/SN at 1633UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
31 Oct
Solar: moderate, with an M1 at 0226UT, and an M2/SF at 0532UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
01 Nov
Solar: moderate, with an M1/1F at 0322UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Absorption observed due to proton event.
02 Nov
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
03 Nov
Solar: high, with an M2/1F at 0133UT, an M1/1N at 0335UT, an M5.0/SN at
1547UT, and an M1/SF at 1826UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
04 Nov
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (05 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate. Region 696 has produced two M5-Class events in the
last two days of this report period, and shows signs of increasing
sunspot size and has a complex magnetic composition. Region 693 also
has the potential for flare activity given its large size and magnetic
configuration. Both regions hold the potential for further C and M
class events.
Geomagnetic: Active conditions are expected for the beginning of this
reports forecast, with the arrival of shock fronts from several CME events
expected to elevate geomagnetic conditions over the next few days.
Both active Regions 693 and 696 are in geoeffective positions and are
likely to cause disturbances should they continue to flare. Minor Storm
levels are possible within this forecast period.
Frequencies: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 05-Nov, depressed 15%
briefly after local dawn on 06-Nov, depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on
07-Nov, depressed 15 to 20% on 09-Nov, depressed 15 to 20% on 10-Nov, otherwise
MUFs near normal. SWFs possible for 05Nov-07Nov.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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