[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 November 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 NOVEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (03 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    136   136   141   129   130   124   141
AFr       7     5     1     4    22   116 ( 85)
Aaus      8     6     2     3    41    60 ( 64)
T        81    75    63    77    56    78    18

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M2/1F at 0133UT, an M1/1N at 0335UT, an M5.0/SN at
1547UT, and an M1/SF at 1826UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


04 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0335UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


05 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/1F at 1130UT, an M1/SF at 1922UT, and an
M2/1N at 2229UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


06 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M9.3/2N at 0034UT, an M5.9 at 0057UT, an M3 at
0157UT, and an M1 at 1953UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


07 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X2.0 at 1606UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 1053UT on 07
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


08 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1549UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


09 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an   M8.9 at 1719UT 
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 
A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 0931UT on 09
Nov, and a moderate (58nT) impulse was observed at 1849UT on 09 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


 
2. FORECAST (10 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Conditions expected to be Moderate to High while region 696
remains on disk, after which Low to Moderate levels should be expected.   

Geomagnetic:  Major Storm level intervals are expected for the first three days
of the forecast period. Conditions then after are expected to be Quiet to
Unsettled with isolated Active periods, depending upon further flare
activity from Region 696 as well as the influence of a coronal hole which
is moving into geoeffective position in the northern hemisphere around 
this time.

Frequencies:  depressed 30% on 10-Nov, depressed 30% on 11-Nov, depressed 20 to
30% on 12-Nov,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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