[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (28 March 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 28 MARCH 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (21 MARCH - 27 MARCH)
Date     21    22    23    24    25    26    27
10cm     91    89    93    98   109   127   141
AFr      19    11    13     5     5     7 ( 20)
Aaus     22    13    17     9     4     7 ( 21)
T        25    69    84    78    85    95    99

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

21 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Variable local depressions during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-35% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

22 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      About 10% below predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with extended periods of localised disturbance.

23 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Mildly depressed during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, with localised 
      periods of disturbance.

24 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

26 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

27 Mar 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


COMMENT: coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity observed at start and end of week.
 
2. FORECAST (28 MARCH - 03 APRIL)
Solar: Moderate. Solar flare activity may increase this week.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm periods
	      possible local night hours, for most of the  week, due to broad coronal hole 
	      solar wind stream.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn southern region
	      Aus for most of the week. MUFs for southern region Aus 
	      were depressed 15-20% at time of issue of this report.
	      Northern Aus region MUFs expected to stay near normal.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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