[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 March 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 MARCH 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 MARCH - 20 MARCH)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm    139   131   129   125   118   108    97
AFr      16    17    12    19    16     9 ( 15)
Aaus     19    21    20    22    23    12 ( 24)
T       133   107    79    77    86    78    78

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Mar 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


15 Mar 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


16 Mar 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


17 Mar 
Solar:        High, with an X1.5/1B at 1905UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


18 Mar 
Solar:        High, with an M1/1N at 0037UT, an M2/1B at 
              0600UT, and an X1.5/1B at 1208UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


19 Mar 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1 at 0307UT, an M1/2F at 
	      0646UT, an M3/1N at 0953UT, and an M1/2F at 
	      1332UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


20 Mar 
Solar:        Moderate, with an  M1/1F at 1131UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (21 MARCH - 27 MARCH)
Solar:        Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.
	      Coronal hole wind stream effects should decline early
	      in the week. 

Frequencies:  Depressed 15 to 20% on 21-Mar, depressed 15% briefly 
	      after local dawn on 25-Mar, depressed 15% briefly after 
	      local dawn on 26-Mar,  otherwise MUFs near normal. 

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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