[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 January 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 JANUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (17 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    142   137   130   138   134   130   136
AFr       4     9     9    12     9    14 ( 17)
Aaus     13    16    18    18    15    18 ( 18)
T       124   111   111   102   124   135    99

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

18 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mild depression early in UT day at some sites.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10% to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.

21 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1526UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0444UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2.5/1N at 1243UT , and an   M1.0 at 0448UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active with isolated periods of 
              minor storm. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of depressions and degradations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations. 

2. FORECAST (24 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY)
Solar: Low to moderate.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Active in the first half of the period. 
              Mostly Quiet in the second half of the period.

Frequencies:  depressed 10% on 24-Jan and 25-Jan, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
              SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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