[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 January 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 JANUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    185   189   173   172   164   150   145
AFr       7     9     4     5     7     7 (  6)
Aaus     13     8    10     7    13    10 (  6)
T       145    92    77   119   127   141   131

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Isolated depressions during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed briefly after local dawn, enhanced 20%
      during local afternoon, otherwise near 
      predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with variable periods of disturbance.

14 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values. 

15 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (17 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals 
possible 19-20 Jan and 23-24 Jan due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream.

Frequencies:  Mostly 15% above normal. Mild depression possible 
after local dawn 20 Jan , and 24-25 Jan.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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