[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 February 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 07 FEBRUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (31 JANUARY - 06 FEBRUARY)
Date     31    01    02    03    04    05    06
10cm    120   126   127   133   135   140   150
AFr      11    10    29    16    14     7 ( 12)
Aaus     14    15    38    19    26    15 ( 15)
T        69    79    36    34    58    99   126

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

31 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      5-15% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

01 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0905UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.

02 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Active to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted to depressed 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.

03 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%
      at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly depressed by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed by 15-30% and greater at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.

04 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.

05 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Feb 
Solar:        low, with an   M1.2 at 0349UT 
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT:
Disturbed conditions observed 02-04 Feb.
Activity believed associated with solar coronal holes.
Increased occurrence of large coronal holes has been observed
over past few months. Possibly suggesting we are now
in the declining phase of this cycle.
 
2. FORECAST (07 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Low to Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled.

Frequencies:  MUFs near to 15% above normal.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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