[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 April 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 APRIL 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (11 APRIL - 17 APRIL)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm    103   102   102   102   101    99   101
AFr      14    10     8    13    13    13 ( 29)
Aaus     13     9     7    11    14    25 ( 18)
T        81    74    83    86    98    80    83

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


12 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


13 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


14 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


15 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


16 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
      Near predicted monthly values


17 Apr 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night, with 
      variable local depressions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values
      with variable extended local disturbances.


 
2. FORECAST (18 APRIL - 24 APRIL)
Solar:        Low. Possible C-class flare activity from newly 
	      arriving regions on east solar limb.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled with active intervals. Possible 
	      mild effects mid-week from a small equatorial 
	      coronal hole currently at solar central meridian.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 18-Apr, 
	      21-23 Apr. Depressed 15 to 20% on 24-Apr,  
	      otherwise MUFs near normal. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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